Automated Trading System - Summary to Date
I’ve been evaluating FXCM’s Forex System Selector for over 4 weeks now. After selecting 10 different models, I’ve observed trading performance against a test account with FXCM. Here’s a summary of the trades completed to date, and some performance observations:
At this point, my primary observation would be that it has been a bumpy ride. There has been a lot more risk that I expected, especially with the latest trades, which put the account down over $12,000 before somehow closing at a profit.
To date, there have been 41 trades. 27 trades (66%) were winners while 14 trades (34%) were losers. This is about what you should expect from a good system over time. Whilst this is only one month, this is encouraging.
The average winning trade was $551, while the average loss was $961. This is less than ideal. The result was biased by one particularly bad trade from one model, which lost $1840. This points to the need to control downside risk through careful selection (which I tried) and also overriding the maximum loss points to preserve capital.
Some models will be dropped for the next evaluation. I don’t see any particular reason to keep trading WealthBuildersFX-Foxtrot, after it lost $1840 in one bad trade. Similarly, I’ll drop Pipsopolis.
I’ll be overriding the maximum loss for the FXGrup model, which had mixed results as the most heavily traded model. On balance, this made $1,042 with a mixture of losses and profits.
There weren’t any real standout models. The GFS-Castafx returned good results, but only after taking some horrendous risks by opening multiple simultaneous positions which at one point (marked to market) took 12% in one set of trades. A small investor can’t afford this risk, especially since it was held over a weekend.
The net profit to date (on a $100,000 account) is $1,431.
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